Trump to Win 2020 on Landslide if Schultz Runs, Poll Reveals
atest poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University
According to a new national survey examining the popularity of a 'left of center' independent presidential bid, like former Starbucks chief Howard Schultz, the number of votes snatched from the Democratic nominee would allow President Donald Trump win a second term.
Five Democrats would switch for every Republican who abandoned to the third party candidate.
The latest poll from the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University says it would result in Trump snatching 34 percent of the 2020 vote, leaving the Democrats with 32 percent, and the independent 16 percent.
“The Democrats’ visceral reaction to a potential Howard Schultz run doesn’t look like an overreaction,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center.
"A five-to-one defection rate is cause for alarm.”
Bitecofe added that ina two-way generic race, voters favored a Democrat by 11 points, 48 percent to 37 percent.
The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%
Despite Democrats advising Schultz to step out of the race, he is going ahead with campaign events.
Democratic Party Chairwoman Tina Podlodowski gave a simple, two-word piece of advice for Schultz:
"Too much is at stake to make this about the ambitions of any one person," said Podlodowski in a statement.
“Defectors” to a third party was highlighted by The Wason Center survey.
“Further analysis revealed that 45 percent percent of the ‘defectors’ self-identify or lean Democratic, compared with 31 percent Republican and 19 percent independent. Fully 77 percent describe their political ideology as ‘moderate.’” said the analysis.
“These are strange times, but history suggests that spoiler is the most likely role a third-party candidate will play in 2020,” said Wason Center Director Quentin Kidd.
The key points in the poll release:
- Having an Independent candidate in the 2020 presidential race dramatically improves President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection.
- In a head-to-head match-up of the 2020 general election, Trump trails a generic Democratic Party nominee among likely voters by 11 points, 37 percent to 48 percent, with 9 percent of voters undecided.
- With an Independent in the race, the election becomes a statistical tie between Trump and his Democratic Party rival, 34 percent to 32 percent, with 16 percent going to the Independent, and 16 percent undecided.
- An analysis of voters who selected the Independent option after initially selecting Trump or the generic Democrat reveals that for every voter Trump loses; the Democrat loses 5.