CNN Poll: Biden’s Lead Sinks as Trump Makes Gains Across Battleground States
The national number for a four-point race represents a double-digit shift toward Trump
Nationally, Biden leads Trump by just four points nationwide, 50 percent to 46 percent, and even less across 15 battleground states, which determines who wins the electoral college.
Biden is leading by just one percent in the following 15 states:
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
The national number for a four-point race represents a double-digit shift toward Trump, according to CNN’s June poll.
Just two months ago, the survey had Biden up 14 points, which means the most recent survey shows ten-point swing Trump’s way ahead of the conventions.
Biden and his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), will be formally nominated as the presidential and vice-presidential candidates as the Democrats begin their virtual convention.
CNN’s polling director Jennifer Agiesta wrote Trump had shored up several demographics that he was slipping in before, according to her article.
“The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it’s a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide),” Agiesta wrote.
“Trump has also solidified his partisans since June. While 8% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in June said they would back Biden, that figure now stands at just 4%."
"And the President has boosted his backing among conservatives from 76% to 85%.”
The poll was conducted between the 12 and 15 of August, meaning it was done in the middle of Biden's announcement that Harris would be his running mate.
Agiesta added that Americans have just a “narrowly positive” view of Harris, with 41 percent viewing her favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.
Those views have not helped boost the Biden ticket.
CNN separates the sample size into three separate categories:
American adults, registered voters, and registered voters in battleground states.
“The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS August 12 through 15 among a random national sample of 1,108 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 987 registered voters,” Agiesta wrote.
“The survey also includes an oversample of residents of 15 battleground states for a total subsample of 636 adults and 569 registered voters from those states."
"That subset was weighted to its proper share of the overall adult population of the United States. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points."
"It is 4.0 points among registered voters and 5.4 points for results for registered voters in the battleground states.”