91% Chance Trump Will Win November Election, Professor’s Model Predicts
Renowned political science professor's model has great track record
There is a 91 percent chance that President Donald Trump will win the November 2020 election, according to a renowned political science professor.
Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth had a good track record and has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Norpoth told Mediaite in July.
Norpoth, who curated in his model 1996, said it would have predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections correctly since 1912.
Based on early presidential nominating contests while putting emphasis on the enthusiasm candidates are able to generate, the model is able to predict the most liley winner is, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, presidential nominee Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to the Democrat party's losses in the first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The model, whihc correctly predicted Trump’s election in 2016, partially worked by discounting opinion surveys, the professor explained.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
Meanwhile, other election models have predicted Trump would lose to Biden due to various factors, including he coronavirus pandemic.
According to a national election model by Oxford Economics, Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election because of the economic recession and COVID-19.
The Oxford model predicted the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections.
The Washington Post forecast predicted that Trump would receive only 24 percent of the electoral college vote.
The prediction is based on what it suggests that Trump's approval rating continues its downward trajectory.
But Norpoth’s model predicts that not only will the president be re-elected, but he will increase his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.
Most predictions base their forecast on Trump’s leadership throughout the pandemic while alleviating the public health crisis’s impact on the economy.
In 2019, before the pandemic, Co-founder of the private-equity firm The Carlyle Group, David Rubenstein, claimed that Wall Street “would probably say that the chances are pretty good" that Trump will "get re-elected," according to a Fox News.
Before the coronavirus hit, Trump's booming economy created 136,000 American jobs in September 2019, with the unemployment rate falling to just 3.5 percent.
Also, consumer sentiment hit its highest level in a year at the time.