Trump Approval Hits Record High As Dems Forecast Low Millennial/Hispanic Turnout
The newest Gallup poll has revealed that support for President Trump surged
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With the midterms just around the corner, the Democrats are scrambling with their 'get-out-the-vote' efforts as two of their targeted demographic groups have failed to mobilize - Young millennials and Hispanics, according to Bloomberg.
The newest Gallup poll has revealed that support for President Trump surged to 44% through the first two weeks of October, just a single percent below his personal best.
Gallup credited the projection to the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
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According to ZH: The increase in Trump's approval rating served to push his average approval rating for his seventh quarter in office, which began July 20 and ended October 19, to 41.2%.
This Q7 average tumbled short of his 41.9% sixth-quarter average, but it's still almost 5 percentage points higher where it stood one year ago.
And while Trump's Q7 approval is still comparatively low, it's not much lower than comparable ratings for Bill Clinton (41.4% in 1994), Ronald Reagan (41.7% in 1982) and Jimmy Carter (42.3% in 1978).
Trump's immediate predecessor, Barack Obama, also registered a weak Q7 approval rating during his seventh quarter in office, averaging 44.7% job approval in the late summer and early fall of 2010.
In addition to Kavanaugh, several other notable developments occurred during Trump's 7th quarter.
The BEA confirmed that GDP growth increased to 4.2% during the second quarter, consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in 2 decades while the S&P 500 broke through 2,900 for the first time.
Unsurprisingly, Americans who identify or lean Republican have consistently given Trump higher job approval ratings, and during his seventh quarter in office, their average approval rating increased from 81% to 85%, a sign that the president is slowly winning over more voters who were likely once members of the "#NeverTrump" camp.
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His average Q7 approval rating among independent voters also improved by 3 percentage points.
And while poll implies that Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats, raising the likelihood that they maintain control of the House and the Senate following the Nov. 6 midterm, the Dems are worried that signs of enthusiasm among Latino voters won't translate to the voting booth.
According to Bloomberg, one survey released Sunday found 71% of Latinos registered high interest in the midterms, a jump from the 49% of Latinos who said that in mid-September. Among voters under 35, the poll said 51% expressed high interest, which is lower than the 65% average for all registered voters.
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This is hugely unsettled for Democratic strategists because there are 31 GOP-controlled districts where Hispanics make up one-quarter of the population or more.
"It’s just a really, really big question about who’s going to turn out to vote," Lake said. "We could lose Senate seats over it. We could lose - the margin in the House could be greatly reduced. There are a good 15 seats where the millennial and Latino vote make a huge difference, could be the margin of victory."
In the past, any interest ahead of the vote represented by young voters and minorities didn’t transpose at the ballot box, as both demographics largely sat out the midterms in 2014, 2010 and 2006.
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Historically, the trend in non-presidential elections is that voters are older, white and married - demographics that often benefit Republicans.
In 2014, Hispanics comprised 25.1% of eligible voters but just 6.8% of the electorate. In 2010, they accounted for 21.3% of eligible voters and 6.6% of the electorate.
In 2006, a strong year for Democrats, they were 17.3% of eligible voters and just 5.6 percent of the electorate.
One strategist perfectly summed up the contradiction in the data: while young voters are "very, very fired up, but the question is: Are they fired up for the next protest or for the next election?"
